Out the Transfer Window: The NCAA’s Attempt to Control Transfer Portal Stats
6-minute read on transfer portal stats & transfer windows
How did we get here?
Throughout much of the history of college football, teams were typically constructed through the recruitment high school athletes. While it was not unheard of for players to transfer from one school to another, it was a relatively rare occurrence. Though it did often spark controversy. However, following a series of significant events, the NCAA decided to introduce the Transfer Portal in 2018. It came with the aim of streamlining the process and giving players more agency in their decisions.
The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic shortly thereafter brought about a new set of transfer rules. This made it easier than ever for players to switch programs. As a result, the number of portal entries surged, giving rise to issues related to roster management, scholarship distribution, and the ability of transferred athletes to successfully integrate into new teams. In attempt to regain stability, the NCAA began to consider implementing changes. These changes would make it more challenging for players to transfer, a shift that had not been seen in some time.
What are the transfer portal statistics?
Out the Transfer Window: Transfer portal statistics & transfer windows
The statistics regarding the transfer portal can be somewhat difficult to interpret due to differing designations of the transfer year and lack of transparency. For the purposes of this analysis, transfer years are considered to be from August to July. Additionally, due to fluctuations and unique case-by-case incidents, these figures are best understood as a probable range rather than exact numbers.
How many players have entered the transfer portal?
Out the Transfer Window: Transfer portal statistics & transfer windows
Looking at the growth of transfer portal entries year-by-year, we see that there were approximately 1700 in 2019 (a shortened year). This was followed by a sharp increase to 6,700 in 2020, 9,600 in 2021, and 7,900 in 2022.
These numbers reflect the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, as well as rule changes that made transferring easier in 2021. Despite the overall decrease in entries in 2022, the total still hovers around 8,000. Of these transfers, approximately 38% are FBS, 28% are FCS, 27% are D2, and 6% are D3. These starts are according to the AthLinkd database.
Who are the available players in the transfer portal?
Out the Transfer Window: Transfer portal statistics & transfer windows
Two additional statistics to consider are peak entry time and success rate. The peak entry time for all transfers occurred between November and January. This is because players typically chose to finish their season before entering the transfer portal. Another peak time was between March and May, when spring ball came to an end.
As for success rate, roughly 60% of FBS transfers found a new school. This is compared to 45% for FCS, 25% for D2, and 10% for D3, according to the AthLinkd database. It should be noted that these figures include graduate transfers who had already earned their degree before entering the portal.
What is the transfer portal trends and changes?
Out the Transfer Window: Transfer portal statistics & transfer windows
Understanding these trends and statistics is crucial for comprehending the issues that have arisen as a result of the transfer portal. The massive number of players entering the portal has affected all football programs, even those who initially vowed not to recruit from it. Statistically, every college football program can expect at least 10 players to enter the portal annually. This has caused significant problems in terms of roster management. This is due to the unexpected loss of players has impacted depth and team composition.
In May 2022, the NCAA responded to this issue by removing the traditional 25-scholarship limit per class in FBS. Certain programs had seen over 25 players enter the transfer portal alone. In addition to issues with roster management and scholarship allocation, college football coaches were now being pushed more than ever. They were expected to recruit their own team year-round while also coaching and recruiting new talent. The growth of the transfer portal, combined with its low entry success rate, had created a storm within the sport.
What are transfer windows?
Out the Transfer Window: Transfer portal statistics & transfer windows
The introduction of transfer windows was a step towards addressing the issues posed by the transfer portal. The NCAA hoped that this new system would provide more structure. Also, it hoped to reduce the chaos caused by the constant influx of players entering the transfer portal at any given time.
The transfer windows were approved in August 2022. There were two common periods for players to enter the transfer portal: the winter window and the spring window. The winter window occurs after the regular season and lasts for 45 days. The spring window occurs after spring ball and lasts for 15 days. In total, there are 60 days in which players can enter the transfer portal. It is important to note that players who enter during the transfer window can commit and enroll at a new school during or after the window.
When do transfer windows open and close?
Out the Transfer Window: Transfer portal statistics & transfer windows
The open and close dates for these windows vary by division, with FBS and FCS having different dates. FBS transfer windows begin and end in early December and mid-January, respectively. FCS transfer windows begin in late November and end in early January. D2 and D3 divisions are not bound by transfer windows. Some players announce their intention to transfer via social media but cannot officially enter the portal until the transfer window opens.
There are exceptions to the transfer window system. Graduate transfers can enter the transfer portal at any time. Also, players on teams whose head coach has been fired or has left are given a 30-day window to enter. There are also waiver processes available for players who wish to enter the transfer portal at any time.
Are transfer windows working?
Out the Transfer Window: Transfer portal statistics & transfer windows
As of the writing of this article, the 2023 winter transfer window has already passed. So, what were the outcomes? Firstly, it did seem to encourage players to enter the portal during the designated window. Between the time the windows were announced and the end of the first regular season, only about 400 transfers had entered the portal, with many having to withdraw due to the new rule change. However, from mid-November to mid-January, nearly 4000 transfers entered the portal, with almost 1500 of them entering during the week of December 5, which marked the official opening of the FBS transfer window.
If the rate of entry continues during the 15-day spring window, around 1300 more entries are expected, bringing the total annual transfer window entry count to about 6300. However, due to the lack of window restrictions on lower divisions, the mobility of graduate students, coach firings/leavings, and approved waivers, an additional 1500-2000 entries are expected outside of the transfer window dates, bringing the total to nearly 8000 – which is similar to the 2022 total, per the AthLinkd database.
It seems that the transfer windows have been successful in focusing entry to some extent, which has eased the burden on coaching staffs and hopefully discouraged impulsive transfers by players during the season. However, the overall transfer rate remains similar to previous years, and the success of players finding new schools seems low, particularly in lower divisions.
The transfer system remains controversial, with several issues affecting student-athletes, coaches, and institutions alike. One significant problem is the relationship between transfers and Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL), as schools, especially at the highest level, are expected to use NIL to incentivize their best players to stay. If they fail to do so, there is a risk of the player entering the transfer portal. The real issue, however, arises when players are reportedly being offered money by other programs to enter the transfer portal, leading to concerns about potential tampering.